Thursday, May 21, 2015

What a Month it Was

"Bless us fadda, it has been a month since me last"  post, but a lot like a confession this one will be.

Ukrainia  continues to fester over low heat. The situation is reminiscent of the joyous Christmas season (Ukrainian Catholic) with desultory shelling around Donetsk, east of Mariuople and a steady report of casualties on both sides. There are no 'trapped' garrisons to be rescued and resupplied (or eliminated). So there shouldn't be be any 'massive tooth breaking offensive' written-off as humanitarian mission, but that doesn't mean there won't be.

Kyiv has a 'new' army some 35 000 youngsters 'called to the colors' during and since the last fiasco. And what's the sense of having an army of heroes-in-waiting and not using it? I would imagine, however, that even  patriotic arms-refurbishers are demanding greenbacks up front before taking government orders these days. The only weapons Porko has been seen 'giving' to the new army, just drove off a USAF C-17 in the form of "non-lethal hardware". But we'll see. A good fight is always better than a bankruptcy.

Meanwhile the handcart has come off the rails elsewhere (Or, things are working out according to plan.). What was looking like the same old, same old in Yemen has turned into another 'coalition exercise'. This time the Saudis have taken the aggressive bit between their teeth and are practicing what America preaches on  Houthi rebels who "overran" the western part of the country and 'illegally couped' the former almost-elected President in favor of the son of the previously president 'legally couped' by AQ.  None of this, however, is in any way comparable to , say, Ukraine, for this is all about Iranian "hegemony" in the Red Sea don'tcha no?  Or illegal estoppage thereof.

America is 'officially' sitting this one out, but restocking the Saudi arms bunker,  in order to see what transpires - maybe it will be peace and good times. But a close eye is being kept lest the Ayetolleh tries to 'putin' the situation by sending in volunteers, armor, or any of that 'humanitarian' assistance. Needless to say, the civilian population, of any stripe, has been taking the rap on the nose, as the military try to avoid actually wrecking any of the expensive hardware America has so thoughtfully  provided to both sides.

A couple of interesting factoids coming out of this:  the Malaysians (of MH17 fame)  have almost done a back-flip denying that they are any part of 'the coalition', after an Malaysian aircraft landed in Saudi Arabia to rescue Malaysians trapped in Yemen and the media were told it was full of Moslem seamen, or something.

Another recent development was a unilaterally-declared halt in the bombing coming from Riyadh. While ostensibly for 'humanitarian reasons', the halt was more like the interval while the dentist changes the drill bit -you know what's coming. And it did, after 'quiet' 5 days during which the UN was able to fly about 5 tonnes of supplies in to Sanaa, the 'boom boom' restarted with an Arab 'adler tag'.

Meanwhile the Iranians continued to be thwarted trying to get 2500 tonnes of supplies in by ship.  At last report it was steaming for Djibouti, of all places,  for an international inspection. That's no guarantee 'the coalition' will allow it to dock in Yemen.  My guess?  Not!.