It's hard to believe that in my last post more than three weeks ago, I commented that 'Afrin' - a Kurdish enclave in NW Syria - had been taken under attack by Turkish forces. What looked back then like a slam dunk waiting to happen, has degenerated into another second-world failure to win. For here we are, well-up the road and the Turks are barely beyond the areas they had bravely motored-into on Day 1. Motored into and failed to motor out of. Last week, if some sources are to be believed, the Kurds beat-off a Turkish assault that left the battlefield festooned with some burning armor and an estimated 34 Turks dead on the ground. This is unusual for, until now, the Turks were content to let their SFA 'comrades' take pride of place liberating 'their homeland'. As one source put it last week, the Turks 'have met mud and mountains and their advance has drawn a blank'. Winter in northern Syria, and southern Turkey is like that. Kurds are coming from NE eastern Syria through government held arreas, to take part.
In the most recent development the Kurdish forces in Afrin have done a deal with Assad that is quite likely to see the Syrian flag hoisted over Afrin and the Kurds withdrawn to their enclave in the eastern part of Syria. Today the government forces assumed control over the Kurdish suburb of the long embattled city of Aleppo. It too having suffered the blandishments of Islamic Jihad without caving, so it just as much in need of rebuilding as East Aleppo.
What's really interesting is intersting for Turkey which, all of a sudden, loses its reason to be grabbing another chunk of Syria - this time from Assad's forces and not ISIS or the Kurds. As well as still having to face-off against the PKK in the Syrian version of Rohava. And that latter involves the USA
America is on the 'horns' of another 'dilemma', for it now gets to face-off against the Turks or abandon its new friends the Syrian Kurds. It will be facing-off against Assad as he turns his attention toward the jihadis and FSA still holding on in the Golan and near the SW border. Both of which, without Russian help, will be nasty and with Russian help will be complicated. I think the Syrian Kurds know on which side their falafel is greased and there isn't much America could, or would, do to stop the Turks. Assad would.
To ensure there is no Turkish 'hanky panky' into what is marked out as 'Rojava', Kurdish units are evacuating north from the US-inspired conquest of the east bank of the Euphrates around Deir Ez Zor. That's something the US won't like. Especially if it leaves ISIS isolated and at the mercy of Syrian forces which already have a bridgehead on the East Bank. (It was bombed last week for "threatening" US "allies" in the area, or for repulsing an SDR/ISIS attack on the bridgehead - that news is clarified below.) The US is also in a pickle further north backing-up its Kurdish allies while facing-down a potential fight with the Turks over the 'buffer zone' the Turks want, to keep Kurds off their border. Had the Turks not been taking a licking in Afrin, that zone might have been better-formed - as of now, it isn't.
Assad's forces continue to 'bite back' the remaining ISIS enclaves in western Syria, as well as nipping off parts of Idlib governate not covered by de-escalation agreements. The Russians are still bombing targets in central Idlib accused of being the launch points of drones that bombed Russian bases a week and a half back and, more recently, of being the 'home' of whichever group it was used a manpad rocket to down a Russian forces fighter-bomber. The Russians had, I thought, closed the airspace over Afrin, but since the Turks are still attacking the borders, aside from preventing any further bombardment of the hard-hit governate 'capital', that isn't having any immediate effect on Turkish Air operations.
That incident near Deir EzZor last week upped the US ante significantly, as they waded-in to 'defend' their part of Eastern Syria and consequently may have killed a large number of Russians when they gave what they thought were 'only' Syrians the full-treament from assets in the area. While the Russians, so far, have taken time to study and decry the 'we got ya' idiots, they were starting to release more information on the dead and wounded 'contractors' they claim had "nothing to do with the Russian military" They were treating the incident far differently than they treated the notorious ceasefire 'introductory' boming at the same place, a year ago Christmas.
I don't think the fat lady has had her 'ups' about this one. Somebody's going to wait until America gets cocky again to perhaps show them what the Russians can do to a force caught out in the open.
THE 'ROYAL' CANADIAN.....the ravings of somebody who's been out in the 'Big White' too long.
Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts
Thursday, February 22, 2018
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Since the Last Time, Last Time
The 'last time' I updated (October 5th) I wrote about the USAF strike in the MSF hospital in Kunduz. The most recent development of that horror is the announcement that the aircrew involved have been suspended and may be looking at a court martial. Something has come off the rails at PR headquarters.
LA Times Report
We should recall that the incident happened when Afghan and US Special forces were engaged in the mission to drive the Taliban invaders out of that city - hopefully saving it, without destroying it. If the Taliban were playing true to form - where the notion about 'fighting and running away' is wiser than 'standing up' like a man so the nice chopper jockeys can shred you, they were probably exiting, stage north, while the good guys rolled into town from the south - at night. An assault, at the best of times, is usually governed, at least when there are Americans involved, by the 'war philosophies' of 'fire superiority' and its related axioms: fire suppression, reconnaissance by fire, fire and movement, etc - which generally involve a lot of shooting.
That this is happening at night, when either you can't see, or the night vision goggles are lighting up like a Disney movie, you have a recipe for the wrong people getting shot, or shot at. And so when the 'Spectre' gunship, circling above to provide 'fire support' (another axiom), received the report that maybe, somebody inside the hospital may have fired at the 'saving' forces, the gun sights would have been zeroed on the coordinates and confirmation of target sought. Obviously they got that for they opened-up and, after 55 minutes of the best airborne bang-bang money can buy and their ammo bins emptied, the hospital had been put out of commission. Obviously too, in the heat of all that 'action' nobody thought to vet the procedure with HQ - which had, unbeknownst to the birdmen, one of those silly humanitarian agreements with MSF about not shooting-up their hospital.
I'll bet that, after they wiped-off, even the gunship crew knew there was a 'shitstorm' coming their way. And so the PR second-guessers kicked into overdrive. They took witnesses out of action to testify to seeing Taliban dashing about and firing from inside the hospital. Only thing wrong with that there were no dead Taliban, their weapons or even empty cartridges from all the shooting, found inside. Not that there wouldn't have been, for some non-military types actually got into the hospital before the good guys drove an AFV though the wall of a destroyed ward three days later to get inside to 'do their investigation'. The MSF and Afghan watchman could easily have spirited-off the dead bad guys and picked up all the empties and guns left behind. Why they even got the President of Afghanistan on the news, to say that he wouldn't second-guess 'good intel' and, while it was regrettable, the shoot'em-up was OK by him. The President of the USA, of course, praised the good work of MSF and blamed the Taliban for endangering them. The US armed forces came up with a body of information and 'scenarios' to justify wiping them out.
And to-day, well the pendulum swings and somebodies, the guys at the sharp end, are going to have a chance to make their own case for why they felt the need to do what they were trained and deployed to do, in front of the humanitarians who sent them there and would have been pinning medals on them if this had turned-out to be a 'feather in their cap', rather than 'a black eye'. If Joe Heller were still alive he would be roaring about this one.
A human interest story coming out of this sad mess."The Man on the Table"
Milo Minderbinder lives and the Big Picture is still what counts.
Speaking of that Big Picture again. The western military is agog in anticipation of what Putin is going to do to the Turks. While he seems to have ruled out risking a 'nukuler conflagration' by attacking a NATO member under Article 5 of the Treaty. (Boo! Hiss! Pusssaaay!) , Putin is being cracked-up for all kinds of creativity designed to bring about the end of all we hold dear and sacred. The western media is full of 'what ifs', but the other 80 percent of the balderdash deals with why it was so right of the Turkish Air force to drop a Russian jet in the course of its duties bombing Syrian terrorists - well not quite terrorists like the ones we don't like, these are doing the same things and we do like them. Like the Kurds defending their homes against ISIS, the Turkomens of Syria are 'defending their homes' against the Assad regime. In most other places they are called 'rebels', in Syria they're called the 'Free Syrian Army' because we've armed them like a regular army to destroy tanks and aircraft. Apparently they couldn't drop the Russian aircraft 'attacking' them, so their blood brothers across the border did. The Russians initially claimed it was ground fire that downed the jet (it was ground fire that killed one of the crew) but rather than take the 'free out', the Turks responded with a radar tracking map and claimed the Russians flew over a 20 Km-wide sliver of southern Turkey that pokes 50 KM into northern Syria. the overflight took 17 seconds, during which the Russian aircraft (2) were 'warned' 10 times. Then a Turkish fighter fired an Aamraam long-range missile which struck one of the Russians while it was in Syrian airspace. That caused a crash inside Syria.
Russia denies the aircraft were in Turkey at all. It's maintaining that story to-day while NATO is making noises about 'overreactions' and the US is saying it can't confirm Turkish radar data.
The Russian media slant:
We'll see where this goes but it's pretty certain it won't be a cause for war or even some Shock 'n Awe.
LA Times Report
We should recall that the incident happened when Afghan and US Special forces were engaged in the mission to drive the Taliban invaders out of that city - hopefully saving it, without destroying it. If the Taliban were playing true to form - where the notion about 'fighting and running away' is wiser than 'standing up' like a man so the nice chopper jockeys can shred you, they were probably exiting, stage north, while the good guys rolled into town from the south - at night. An assault, at the best of times, is usually governed, at least when there are Americans involved, by the 'war philosophies' of 'fire superiority' and its related axioms: fire suppression, reconnaissance by fire, fire and movement, etc - which generally involve a lot of shooting.
That this is happening at night, when either you can't see, or the night vision goggles are lighting up like a Disney movie, you have a recipe for the wrong people getting shot, or shot at. And so when the 'Spectre' gunship, circling above to provide 'fire support' (another axiom), received the report that maybe, somebody inside the hospital may have fired at the 'saving' forces, the gun sights would have been zeroed on the coordinates and confirmation of target sought. Obviously they got that for they opened-up and, after 55 minutes of the best airborne bang-bang money can buy and their ammo bins emptied, the hospital had been put out of commission. Obviously too, in the heat of all that 'action' nobody thought to vet the procedure with HQ - which had, unbeknownst to the birdmen, one of those silly humanitarian agreements with MSF about not shooting-up their hospital.
I'll bet that, after they wiped-off, even the gunship crew knew there was a 'shitstorm' coming their way. And so the PR second-guessers kicked into overdrive. They took witnesses out of action to testify to seeing Taliban dashing about and firing from inside the hospital. Only thing wrong with that there were no dead Taliban, their weapons or even empty cartridges from all the shooting, found inside. Not that there wouldn't have been, for some non-military types actually got into the hospital before the good guys drove an AFV though the wall of a destroyed ward three days later to get inside to 'do their investigation'. The MSF and Afghan watchman could easily have spirited-off the dead bad guys and picked up all the empties and guns left behind. Why they even got the President of Afghanistan on the news, to say that he wouldn't second-guess 'good intel' and, while it was regrettable, the shoot'em-up was OK by him. The President of the USA, of course, praised the good work of MSF and blamed the Taliban for endangering them. The US armed forces came up with a body of information and 'scenarios' to justify wiping them out.
And to-day, well the pendulum swings and somebodies, the guys at the sharp end, are going to have a chance to make their own case for why they felt the need to do what they were trained and deployed to do, in front of the humanitarians who sent them there and would have been pinning medals on them if this had turned-out to be a 'feather in their cap', rather than 'a black eye'. If Joe Heller were still alive he would be roaring about this one.
A human interest story coming out of this sad mess."The Man on the Table"
Milo Minderbinder lives and the Big Picture is still what counts.
Speaking of that Big Picture again. The western military is agog in anticipation of what Putin is going to do to the Turks. While he seems to have ruled out risking a 'nukuler conflagration' by attacking a NATO member under Article 5 of the Treaty. (Boo! Hiss! Pusssaaay!) , Putin is being cracked-up for all kinds of creativity designed to bring about the end of all we hold dear and sacred. The western media is full of 'what ifs', but the other 80 percent of the balderdash deals with why it was so right of the Turkish Air force to drop a Russian jet in the course of its duties bombing Syrian terrorists - well not quite terrorists like the ones we don't like, these are doing the same things and we do like them. Like the Kurds defending their homes against ISIS, the Turkomens of Syria are 'defending their homes' against the Assad regime. In most other places they are called 'rebels', in Syria they're called the 'Free Syrian Army' because we've armed them like a regular army to destroy tanks and aircraft. Apparently they couldn't drop the Russian aircraft 'attacking' them, so their blood brothers across the border did. The Russians initially claimed it was ground fire that downed the jet (it was ground fire that killed one of the crew) but rather than take the 'free out', the Turks responded with a radar tracking map and claimed the Russians flew over a 20 Km-wide sliver of southern Turkey that pokes 50 KM into northern Syria. the overflight took 17 seconds, during which the Russian aircraft (2) were 'warned' 10 times. Then a Turkish fighter fired an Aamraam long-range missile which struck one of the Russians while it was in Syrian airspace. That caused a crash inside Syria.
Russia denies the aircraft were in Turkey at all. It's maintaining that story to-day while NATO is making noises about 'overreactions' and the US is saying it can't confirm Turkish radar data.
The Russian media slant:
We'll see where this goes but it's pretty certain it won't be a cause for war or even some Shock 'n Awe.
Monday, September 07, 2015
From Bad to Freakin' Horrible
Since last I wrote, Syria has taken another distinct turn for the worse. Not the least part of this is the far-more-evident problem of Syrian refugees seeking safety by storming the walls of the EU.
First the Syrian part. There are really no new developments to note, ISIS continues to be the 'pain in the ass' and bombing target it was last month. Anti-ISIS operations in Iraq are as bogged-down as they have been since the great offensive to liberate Tikrit flopped last spring. The only good news there is that the bombing goes on, unopposed and unabated. But there are now some new 'boots on the ground' - the Turks have gone to war.
No friends of the Assad regime, the Turks have been calling for his ouster all along but until this last fortnight, aside from allowing some 'free access' to those foreigners 'pouring in' to join ISIS and setting up some camps for the hordes pouting out, the Turks haven't done much at all. Twitted, no doubt, by the USA - which is looking for all the coalition they can get - the Turks announced they'd be bombing targets in Northern Iraq. Problem was that when the bombs started falling, the folk underneath them were the other great Turkish 'dislike', the Kurds.
Now as we all know the Kurds are being 'prepped' as the saviors of most of the middle east for goodness, decency and the democratic way. They've been de-listed as world-terrorists, trained by the Israelis and the Germans, armed by America and supported by a number of military contingents from all he best warfighting nations in the free world. A start-up of Turkey's 'long war' with America's best 'friends and allies' was not in President Obama's game plan. The report that over 100 people have been killed in 'terrorist' attacks in southern and eastern turkey over the past two weeks does not bode well for a unified resistance to ISIS.
Turkey - last Friday - the Kurds strike back
It was briefly hooted around, this week, that the Russians were coming 'on-side' to face down ISIS, and - it was hoped - to stop supporting Assad. That hope was dashed yesterday when the Russian Foreign Secretary was called to hear America's concerns that the Russians were expanding their presence in Syria and substantially increasing Assad's supply of heavy weapons and aircraft. Fear that Russian Spetznaz operatives might somehow wind-up clashing with US special forces on clandestine operations in eastern Syria were mooted in some military websites. Vlad pulled another 'fast one' while the gipper was contemplating Alaska.
The latest 'offensive' to recapture Ramadi has bogged-down (as all such Iraqi government operations seem to do). Somehow their hearts don't seem to be in taking back Sunni territory - even if the elected government does have the right. They'd have to fight the Kurds, too, for the chunk they hold. If it wasn't for the on-going horror of the beheadment knives, the Shiites might just quit. I have a feeling Iran is saving something for later, right now they just want to not help America.
The war on terror is what it is but the western media are filled with the plight of refugees displaced by the war in Syria and Iraq. The warm-up of Turkey's Kurdish trouble destabiliazed the area where most of the refugees have been placed, making them some kind of camouflage for the Kurds and potential targets for government retribution. Educated by the past 10 years, they have wisely voted with their feet and headed for Turkey's Mediterranean coast. No doubt happy to see them going, Turkey hasn't stopped them traveling to the Greek off-shore islands from where they are able to island-hop to the mainland and Europe. From Greece they travel north into former Yugoslavia and through that to Hungary. For a while it seemed that was the finish line. The Hungarians announced a border fence - not yet constructed - and no passage for refugees - or as they were increasingly described 'migrants'. Numbers overwhelmed the border and a second attempt was made to stop them using the railways to head for Austria and Germany. Once again that failed and large numbers have managed to work their way to the German border. Angela Merkel is under some pressure to deal with the problem and just to-day the Hungarians - goaded no doubt by fearful fellow-members of the EU announced they were deploying troops to the southern border. Clashes between refugees and Hungarian police were reported to-day.
All it would take is another tragedy.
The first tragedy came last week in the form of one of those pivotal photo ops, this time of a dead four-year old on a Lido beach in Greece. The image shot round the world and initially generated a wave of sympathy - with the concomittent appeals for cash by western charities. The dead child may have accomplished more by dying than he ever could have in life - or he might have been the savior of mankind, but not any more. He did put a beaming, happy face on what to most people was something very safely ignored. The news also generated the typical spate of (mostly Australian) anti-moslem rhetoric about it being a 'scam', a fake a false flag, a cover for creeping jihadis to avoid the invasion rowboats and have 'us' paying to import 'them' where they could do the most harm, etc.
Aussie perspective
Somebody even 'reported' the grieving father to be 'living in luxury' in Turkey (as if), that he'd invented the story or fled Syria, to "get new teeth". An English newspaper followed him, and his coffins, back to a ruined house in Kobane and photographed the funeral, as well as the bombed town the family fled.
Daily Mail
The Prime Minister of Canada (which had rejected a sponsorship application for the boy's family - his aunt lives in Canada) ruminated, empathized, not only with Syrians but "the millions displaced" in the GWOT. He blamed ISIS for the plight and reminded Canadians that this tragedy shouldn't interfere with Canada's very necessary bombing of northern Iraq and eastern Syria. He also pointed out what good job Canada had done with refugees on his watch, allowed as how we could do more but had to be careful about letting the bad guys sneak through with the needy. Eminently sensible considering he, personally, declared us a target in the anti-Islamic terror wars.
In a fit of hubris PM Harper was embarrassed this morning to be greeted by video of one of his 'team' running for reelection taking a leak into somebody's coffee cup. By such things are the mighty humbled. Something like that should happen to the jackass governing Australia - but it would just serve to make him more 'human'. (Off topic but I just had to mention it.)
First the Syrian part. There are really no new developments to note, ISIS continues to be the 'pain in the ass' and bombing target it was last month. Anti-ISIS operations in Iraq are as bogged-down as they have been since the great offensive to liberate Tikrit flopped last spring. The only good news there is that the bombing goes on, unopposed and unabated. But there are now some new 'boots on the ground' - the Turks have gone to war.
No friends of the Assad regime, the Turks have been calling for his ouster all along but until this last fortnight, aside from allowing some 'free access' to those foreigners 'pouring in' to join ISIS and setting up some camps for the hordes pouting out, the Turks haven't done much at all. Twitted, no doubt, by the USA - which is looking for all the coalition they can get - the Turks announced they'd be bombing targets in Northern Iraq. Problem was that when the bombs started falling, the folk underneath them were the other great Turkish 'dislike', the Kurds.
Now as we all know the Kurds are being 'prepped' as the saviors of most of the middle east for goodness, decency and the democratic way. They've been de-listed as world-terrorists, trained by the Israelis and the Germans, armed by America and supported by a number of military contingents from all he best warfighting nations in the free world. A start-up of Turkey's 'long war' with America's best 'friends and allies' was not in President Obama's game plan. The report that over 100 people have been killed in 'terrorist' attacks in southern and eastern turkey over the past two weeks does not bode well for a unified resistance to ISIS.
Turkey - last Friday - the Kurds strike back
It was briefly hooted around, this week, that the Russians were coming 'on-side' to face down ISIS, and - it was hoped - to stop supporting Assad. That hope was dashed yesterday when the Russian Foreign Secretary was called to hear America's concerns that the Russians were expanding their presence in Syria and substantially increasing Assad's supply of heavy weapons and aircraft. Fear that Russian Spetznaz operatives might somehow wind-up clashing with US special forces on clandestine operations in eastern Syria were mooted in some military websites. Vlad pulled another 'fast one' while the gipper was contemplating Alaska.
The latest 'offensive' to recapture Ramadi has bogged-down (as all such Iraqi government operations seem to do). Somehow their hearts don't seem to be in taking back Sunni territory - even if the elected government does have the right. They'd have to fight the Kurds, too, for the chunk they hold. If it wasn't for the on-going horror of the beheadment knives, the Shiites might just quit. I have a feeling Iran is saving something for later, right now they just want to not help America.
The war on terror is what it is but the western media are filled with the plight of refugees displaced by the war in Syria and Iraq. The warm-up of Turkey's Kurdish trouble destabiliazed the area where most of the refugees have been placed, making them some kind of camouflage for the Kurds and potential targets for government retribution. Educated by the past 10 years, they have wisely voted with their feet and headed for Turkey's Mediterranean coast. No doubt happy to see them going, Turkey hasn't stopped them traveling to the Greek off-shore islands from where they are able to island-hop to the mainland and Europe. From Greece they travel north into former Yugoslavia and through that to Hungary. For a while it seemed that was the finish line. The Hungarians announced a border fence - not yet constructed - and no passage for refugees - or as they were increasingly described 'migrants'. Numbers overwhelmed the border and a second attempt was made to stop them using the railways to head for Austria and Germany. Once again that failed and large numbers have managed to work their way to the German border. Angela Merkel is under some pressure to deal with the problem and just to-day the Hungarians - goaded no doubt by fearful fellow-members of the EU announced they were deploying troops to the southern border. Clashes between refugees and Hungarian police were reported to-day.
All it would take is another tragedy.
The first tragedy came last week in the form of one of those pivotal photo ops, this time of a dead four-year old on a Lido beach in Greece. The image shot round the world and initially generated a wave of sympathy - with the concomittent appeals for cash by western charities. The dead child may have accomplished more by dying than he ever could have in life - or he might have been the savior of mankind, but not any more. He did put a beaming, happy face on what to most people was something very safely ignored. The news also generated the typical spate of (mostly Australian) anti-moslem rhetoric about it being a 'scam', a fake a false flag, a cover for creeping jihadis to avoid the invasion rowboats and have 'us' paying to import 'them' where they could do the most harm, etc.
Aussie perspective
Somebody even 'reported' the grieving father to be 'living in luxury' in Turkey (as if), that he'd invented the story or fled Syria, to "get new teeth". An English newspaper followed him, and his coffins, back to a ruined house in Kobane and photographed the funeral, as well as the bombed town the family fled.
Daily Mail
The Prime Minister of Canada (which had rejected a sponsorship application for the boy's family - his aunt lives in Canada) ruminated, empathized, not only with Syrians but "the millions displaced" in the GWOT. He blamed ISIS for the plight and reminded Canadians that this tragedy shouldn't interfere with Canada's very necessary bombing of northern Iraq and eastern Syria. He also pointed out what good job Canada had done with refugees on his watch, allowed as how we could do more but had to be careful about letting the bad guys sneak through with the needy. Eminently sensible considering he, personally, declared us a target in the anti-Islamic terror wars.
In a fit of hubris PM Harper was embarrassed this morning to be greeted by video of one of his 'team' running for reelection taking a leak into somebody's coffee cup. By such things are the mighty humbled. Something like that should happen to the jackass governing Australia - but it would just serve to make him more 'human'. (Off topic but I just had to mention it.)
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