The Rain from Spain falls Mainly in Ukraine

It's getting wet again in Ukraine, the wet season that used to precede the mud season, and if the wreckage and remains of MH17, still ungathered in the fields around Hrabove,  are getting another washing, the fate of the jet has received another, unsurprising, laundering too.

The JIP announced its long awaited (since last year) finger-pointing report on not only the latest clarification of 'what happened', but the indication of  'who dunnit'.

What happened?  Nothing new there: "pro-Russian", not anti-Kyiv,  forces got a Buk system from Russia - drove it all around Donetsk and Lugansk regions for a day and, for want of something better to do with it, parked it in an obscure corner of east central Donetsk, and used one of the four missiles they had,  to down a Malaysian Airliner. Then they drove it back, to the flat bed truck they had used to drive it into the regions, packed it up without any attempts to hide the cargo and drove it around the two regions again, through a 'highly fluid battle zone' ( a government armored thrust the day after the crash, cut across the Buk's withdrawal route twice),  perilously close to Government "fortifications of dignity" at Debaltsevo and east to Lugansk, where, apparently it went 'poof' or unobserved,  back into Russia.

One Russian response:

'Who dunnit'?  Aside from Putin, the 'Seps on the radio and telephone', and members of a Russian rocket regiment - 100 souls in all, who had something to do with the BUk, the truck, the escorts, command structure or all of the preceding,

And how do we know all this?  Well although there really isn't much proof by way of actual witnesses, or physical evidence of anything but the crashed plane, great minds - or at last 6 of them -  have  mined the repositories of knowledge - Facebook and YouTube.  They found and connected a plethora of 'dots'.  Not the JIT - they've done little but interview experts and have free lunches - but the 'experts' they have interviewed have made all things clear. Or clear enough to make a cartoon movie to help us all 'get it'.

So who were the experts?  Well no Russians were needed. The info came from  the Ukrainians, who if they weren't possibly suspected, would have been the prime investigators. The Dutch were the lead, on-the-ground investigators, retrieving remains and  wreckage,  dealing with the dead and reconstructing the downed aircraft.  The EU waded-in and, as usual, so did the Americans.  The Brits deciphered the flight recorders.  Most of the 'saga' was unearthed through the army of a half-dozen "independent investigative journalists" associated with a website called Bellingcat and its whiz-bang, unemployed, blogger-proprietor. The Malaysians, who actually got to the site first - more than a week before anybody official appeared - got the bums' rush.  But at least now they're being assured that given some more time - 3 short years - and a little help from concerned citizens in Russia, they may be able to sue Putin at the Hague, if the gallant EUkrainians don't do it first, maybe.

Within an hour of the jet hitting the ground Ukrainian sources were accusing their 'russian'  separatists of downing the aircraft, claiming to have phone intercepts of at least two rebel leaders discussing the crash and celebrating having downed 'another' Ukrainian aircraft. Surprising, insofar as either the Ukrainians were only starting to tap into the dissident area's 'national' cell phone grid, or that the separatists hadn't tweaked to the fact that their using a cell phone was probably going to be overheard in the State Security Office, too.   This is a unique eclat compared to the rest of Ukraine's ATO.  Even more so because the Seps weren't talking about the other military matters, (or stopped), and  that resulted in nasty military 'surprises' all over the east (Saur Moglia within three weeks,  and Ilovaisk, within a month of MH17). On those things the Seps were maintaining telephone silence?

Maybe MH 17 cost Kyiv it's 'victory'. After it the Seps dummied-up and the Ukrainian army of liberation was mauled in a series of 'sneak attacks'?

That notion of the Seps doing it and Russia being responsible became the 'lingua fanca' of anybody sensible - for it was as understandable an act for Russia,  as was annexing Crimea and invading the Donbass.  Putin was just being the 'total ass' that President Obama was telling the world he was. He was on the 'outs' with goodness and civilization and downing a planeload of tourists would prove that to everybody. 

Question was 'how sick is Putin?' The answer comes back, "He's not."  For it wasn't a falling out of over Ukraine that iced Putin, it was a veto at the UN - of another of Obama's increasing number of 'humanitarian' interventions, this time about Syria.  Ukraine 'just happened' and Putin wasn't cheering the US on to another victory.  In the absence of evidence forcing a change, the chorus just do better repeating the refrain: "Putin did it."

In so many words - although the JIT was careful to say they weren't accusing Russia of actually ordering the shoot down or nodding approval at the target acquisition radar, saying they gave the Seps a missile and the Seps used that missile  to do it,  is much like the same thing. Add to that, that at least 80 of the dirty rotten suspects are members of the Russian Armed Forces and you have a slam-dunk  closed case, chapter and verse.   Hell,  you could make an animated short subject film about it all. And they did.

But the greatest part of the saga, and the detail of the cinematographic reconstruction is straight from the on-line archives of Bellingcat.

Bellingcat is a web site registered in great Britain started by a 30-something blogger  called Elliot Higgins. In 2012,  Higgins - unemployed and playing stay at home Daddy to his daughter  - started blogging about the developing War in Syria.  He developed an 'expertise' identifying weapons depicted in YouTube postings, providing what he called 'proof' of Syrian government's use of 'barrel bomb's, cluster munitions and poison gas. Using a synthesis of Google Earth/Google Maps to fact-check posts made on Facebook and other social media, some of his 'revelations' involved locating the sites of ISIS' beheading western and other hostages and identifying the situations around other outrages.  When the Ukrainian incident began Higgins became interested in that as well - looking for evidence of Russian involvement in the Donbass. After MH 17, he formed Bellingcat with 6 assistants to investigate the downing of that aircraft. He is credited with 'debunking' satellite imagery presented by the Russians, claiming it had been 'photoshopped'. His 'work' has been largely accepted by investigators because they have very little of their own.

Bellingcat's singular failing - subjectivity

While Bellingcat's work comes off as  "professional and decisive", it remains open to a number of challenges. First is the notion that anything can be taken from internet sources without being adapted in some way, or that things posted on the internet are pristine or uncorrupted. It is increasingly evident, that, aside,  from the obvious sensitive information, some can be 'staged' including manipulation of attached, metadata identification. One  of these, for instance, involves video footage of the Buk missile system being transported through eastern Donbass on the day of the aircraft downing. The videographer who filmed that claims he made the video 12 days before the incident. Something that doesn't jibe at all with the Bellingcat narrative presented by the JIT.   Bellingcat's reaction to this is that he's wrong and they're right - the video was shot according to their 'investigations'.

One of the other gaps in Bellingcat's narrative is in relation to the transport truck, which originated in Donetsk   but was apparently driven to Russia to fetch the Buk, and then driven all around both Donetsk and Lugansk regions, including those two cities, after being 'stolen' by separatist forces. After it reaches Lugansk, on the way back to Russia, it disappears completely from the story and Bellingcat's ambit, as does the  Buk unit itself.


The most notable aspect of the report? The extension of the 'investigation' for another three years.

Egyptair: MH 17 The Putin Connection?

 The recent downing of  the Egyptair Airbus over the Med must have reminded somebody that MH17 is still in need of some definitive proving.  And so there is a regurgitation of the 'social media ' evidence that Putin dunnit.

Tell that to the Aussies,  who are convinced they're going to be able to convince the ICJ that the chips are all turning-up 'Putin' - and they'd like a few hundred million to assuage the grief involved. The US attorney who got Ghaddafi to cough-up the boodle over Lockerbie - or was that to ensure the release of the convicted, and at that time dying, bomber - has signed-on to 'assist' the case.  It might help if any Russians had been convicted since having a Libyan charged, and found guilty, probably made the Lockerbie case a slam-dunk even if the money did come later.  But there are no convicted, or even identified, Russians - so MH17 might be tougher.

Although the first part of the MH17 investigation was concluded and the conventional wisdom that 'the russians did it' was upheld by Dutch investigators, enough questions were left unanswered to at least hint that the final word may not be emanating from Kyiv.  The Ukrainian side of the issue was adopted from virtually the first moment and only lacking proof would indicate it isn't wrong.  Facebook posts of what  'Bellingcat' thinks the Russian military are up to, his evidence is - to a large degree - open to some questioning or interpretation. It is no 'smoking gun'. That's a large part of the problem that could apparently be resolved easily.  But for some reason it has not been.

Within two days of the incident, US Secretary of State John Kerry gave every indication that he knew all there was to know about MH17, so much so that he appeared at the UN to demand a sanctions program. But statements aside, one would think if definitive proof was available, as he claimed  it was, it would have been made available to the investigation - even 'sub rosa' if military secrets were involved.   Here's what he told America and the world three days after the crash.

Kerry on 'Meet the Press'  July 20, 2014.

The discussion had been wide-ranging before Kerry Arrived but he launched himself into the topic 'ab initio', he remarked on the separatists' guilt, the Russian commander admitting as much, rejoicing over the hit etc , their control of the crash site,  the loading of victims bodies into trucks, knowing Russia had supplied them with Buks and then.  

DAVID GREGORY:
"Are you bottom lining here that Russia provided the weapon?

SECRETARY JOHN KERRY:
There's a story today confirming that. But we have not, within the administration, made a determination. But it's pretty clear, when, you know, there's a build-up of extraordinary circumstantial evidence. You know, I'm a former prosecutor. I've tried cases on circumstantial evidence. It's powerful here. But even more importantly, we picked up the imagery of this launch. We know the trajectory. We know where it came from. We know the timing. And it was exactly at the time that this aircraft disappeared from the radar. We also know, from voice identification, that the separatists were bragging about shooting it down afterwards.

DAVID GREGORY:
Right.

SECRETARY JOHN KERRY:
So there's a stacking up of evidence here, which Russia needs to help account for. We are not drawing the final conclusion here. But there is a lot that points at the need for Russia to be responsible. And what President Obama believes and we, the international community, join in believing, everybody is convinced we must have unfettered access."

There was a conclusion drawn then that still exists and this is a 'smoking gun' story  if I've ever hard one.  Yet Kerry has yet to provide the evidence of which he speaks. Or admit making a creative statement to 'color' an already bloody disaster.

The most  development in the saga is a recently release dash cam of what is claimed to be the rebels Buk 'moving into position' shortly before it downed the Malaysian airliner.

 David Perry of Consortium news deconstructs the updated conventional wisdom

David Perry "More Gameplaying on MH17?"

The second part of the investigation. The presentation of incriminating evidence and the proof of Russian perfidy is not expected anytime soon. 

In the meanwhile there is another plane  - Egyptair - fallen from the sky and even now (almost two weeks later) almost beyond the ability of modern man to retrieve let alone know exactly what happened.  We're nor getting much better at air disasters, are we? 

MH 17

Last July the singular event of Ukraine's recent tribulation came to earth in the fields around the village of  Grabovo. After an investigation lasting a year, and more, the report of the commission looking into the cause of the tragedy is to be made public in October - this after a requested 'delay' of some four months.

In the meantime, members of the investigations panel have continued to blame Russian separatists and have, more recently, approached the UNSC to pass a a resolution setting-up a UN tribunal to adjudicate the matter. The Russians have called the move premature,  inferring it is a move to preempt publishing the investigation findings, as promised,  by opening a court process.  Each of the four participants in the investigation - Holland, Ukraine, Belgium and Australia  - have an individual veto on publication should any of them 'disagree' with the findings. The fifth member Malaya - doesn't. That Ukraine, (in the absence of tangible proof of its claims is starting to look like a major actor in the tragedy or even might bear an innocent responsibility for possibly diverting that plane into danger rather than away from it), has a veto on the report,  is an unprecedented turn of events.



Using the evidence that does exist - the wreckage of the aircraft - it seems to be increasingly evident that an air-to-air missile followed by cannon fire may have brought the aircraft to earth. If that is indeed the case, then the fault lies entirely at the feet of the Kyiv government and a year of  increased EU and US  'sanctions', designed to bring down the Russian economy,  are an unwarranted act of economic aggression.

The Australian government has been 'leading the verbal charge' in support of Ukraine, that Russia is to blame, that sanctions should be broadened, that the UN should take over. And yet the Australian media have been highly selective in revealing details of the incident at a variance with the 'conventional wisdom' on the topic.  Here is a piece written on this by an Australian lawyer.

http://journal-neo.org/2015/04/27/mh17-how-the-media-failed-the-victims-and-the-families/

A recent RT documentary on the topic explores the Malayan connection, interviewing the families of the aircrew and exploring the possibility that something may have been missed or covered-up in the deaths of the crew.  The Global Media report of this indicates that the pilot's seats were left at the crash site, even though the cockpit area was identified, by the panel, as the site of the greatest damage by whatever it was downed the aircraft. The seats, as well as the bodies, should have been a fount of evidence of what those 'high velocity' objects entering MH17 really were. Nothing has been reported about the autopsies. And those seats were 'news' to investigators.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-mh17-pilots-corpse-more-on-the-cover-up/5467351

One of the main proponents of Russian involvement is a British blogger who claims that  popular media postings can be used to back-up the Ukrainian claims that the rebels had a Russian Buk system in eastern Ukraine, used it on the airliner and then evacuated the unit back to Russia for  eradication. His investigations have also revealed a spurious 'evidence' auction  purportedly buying audio transmissions relating to the crash. One of these involved an American, supposedly working for the CIA who was near the crash site the day the airliner was downed.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/07/29/the-strange-story-of-the-ten-thousand-bitcoin-mh17-investigation/comment-page-2/#comment-25289

Then there is another tangential report of an Malayan airliner 'twin' belonging to a US company and stored at an Israeli airport. A number of possible uses for such a dummy aircraft are reported. Along with this one of the last photographs taken of MH17, at the boarding gate for its last flight, by an interested Israeli who was not a passenger.

http://www.bollyn.com/home#article_14814

And finally there's the Corbett report on the topic, dated August 2014, but containing some points, even at that early date that have yet to be explained.

https://www.corbettreport.com/episode-294-crashes-of-convenience-mh17/

Even nuttier: the separatists were searching for 'pilots' who had descended by parachute. 5 parachutes were reported to have existed the passenger plane, or it's vicinity.  No pilots from the UAF were reported captured, or killed, the day of the crash, or in succeeding days. It could be possible parachutists were 'rescued' and taken to safety - in Ukrainian territory. .

"Mossad did it!" : those cockamamie Russians

The very latest up to the minute, etc

"Possible" missile fragments may have been found in the wreckage.  Seems this old hat as somebody was turning-up Buk fragments last August. They didn't turn out to be much at all,  as it couldn't be proven they even came from the incident, or the area. But who knows - the 'possibility' lit-up the twitterverse like Holy Writ.

To-day the 'russians' are being mocked over a completely terrible 'phone interception' of calls between Boris Badinov and a CIA agent in Donbass discussing their mission 'to down a passenger jet' last July.  The story has been around for a while, but recently was resuscitated when translated and published in a German Blog. The 'russians' claim it was presented to them by the former, now relieved,  head of the Ukrainian security service - the same interceptors of rebel missile shooters. They need such 'presents' like they need a new Czar.

But the supposed CIA man is an American blogger who actually was in Ukraine. He writes for a number of US sources, so somebody should ask him where he was and what he was doing the day the Boeing was dropped. That seems like a no-brainer.